Banks are at the epicentre of the eurozone crisis, not states. The
solution would have been to shut down bad banks and create healthy ones
across Europe. But this would have meant German and French taxpayers
bearing the costs of restructuring Italian and Spanish banks: an
impossibility. Thus, national banking systems have been allowed to drift
closer to their own nation states during the past three years: banks
have relied on their own states to be rescued, and states have relied on
their own banks to borrow. The result has been the fragmentation of
eurozone banking, producing enormous divergences in interest rates among
member countries. The monetary union is collapsing from within.
Today,
ECB president Mario Draghi tried to stop the rot by promising to buy
unlimited amounts of short-term public debt from states that accepted
austerity programmes. His aim was to compress interest rates and reverse
the fragmentation of banking, but it will be a short-term palliative at
most. Banks need restructuring, and peripheral competitiveness needs to
be restored through an investment programme to raise the productivity
of labour. Instead, the EU has opted for the blunderbuss of cuts to
labour costs. For the periphery this means high unemployment and low
growth; for the eurozone it means a break-up is more likely.
For
Greece, where EU policies are most sharply felt, the implications are
dreadful. The country will become a poor, aging, dysfunctional and
irrelevant corner of Europe.The purchasing power of wage earners fell by
23% in 2010-11, and yet the country continues to slide down the
competitiveness tables. Nothing daunted, the troika is now going as far
as proposing the return of the six-day week and the actual lengthening
of the working day. Labour unrest and anti-social behaviour seem
inevitable.
Greece's ruling elite fear a euro exit and so will
acquiesce to the troika's demands, hoping to buy time until an overall
eurozone settlement is reached. But the balmy days of credit-driven
eurozone growth are gone for good. Even if a eurozone collapse is
avoided, it will be too late for Greece. To put its economy and society
together again, the country must default and exit the monetary union.
Profound political change will follow. Some semblance of normality might
then return to Syntagma Square.
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